Fail Factor: How well did TV networks choose their new shows this season? [Updated]

fail-factor-2012-new-shows.jpg UPDATE: Now that the networks have set their schedules for the 2013-14 season, totals and percentages changed to reflect the current status of each show.

It is no secret that this has not been a banner year for broadcast television.

The narrative that, on the business side at least, this has been a down season for traditional network TV is not just hype. Compared to this time last season, all five English-language broadcast networks are drawing smaller ratings among adults 18-49, the age group that drives the bulk of advertiser spending.

The drops range from trifling (CBS is down from a 3.0 last year to a 2.9, NBC from 2.5 to 2.4) to alarming (FOX has lost seven tenths of a point, going from 3.2 last season to 2.5 now). Three networks -- ABC, FOX and NBC -- are also drawing smaller total audiences, while CBS and The CW have posted just modest gains of 220,000 and 70,000 viewers.

PICS: Shows canceled in 2012-13

Part of those bummer numbers can be blamed on the fact that few real hits emerged from this season's crop of new series. "Elementary" and "Revolution" have been strong performers for CBS and NBC, and "Arrow" has given The CW a boost. But of the 37 new scripted series the networks have offered up this year, only seven 10 have been renewed for a second season,  while 11 have already been canceled a whopping 26 were canceled (NBC has yet to say what it's doing with "Hannibal").

That means no more than 29.8 percent of the new shows to air this season will return. That's a pretty poor success rate, but it's actually not too far off the nets' recent history. In the three seasons prior to this one (2009-10 to 2011-12), the broadcast networks debuted 108 scripted shows; 37 of them were renewed, a success rate of just above 34 percent.

Here's a breakdown of how new shows have fared this season. For notes on the numbers, see the end of the post.

ABC: 10 new shows

Renewed: 2 ("Nashville," "The Neighbors")
Canceled: 7 ("666 Park Avenue," "Last Resort," "Zero Hour," "Family Tools," "How to Live With Your Parents ...," "Malibu Country," "Red Widow")
Yet to air: 1 ("Mistresses")

Fail factor: 70 percent

CBS: 6 new shows

Renewed: 1 ("Elementary")
Canceled: 4 ("Made in Jersey," "Partners," "Golden Boy," "Vegas")
Yet to air, but not on 2013-14 schedule: 1 ("Friend Me")

Fail factor: 83.33 percent

FOX: 5 new shows

Renewed: 2 ("The Following," "The Mindy Project")
Canceled: 2 ("Ben and Kate," "The Mob Doctor")
Currently airing, but not on 2013-14 schedule: 1 ("The Goodwin Games")

Fail factor: 60 percent

NBC: 11 new shows


Renewed: 2 ("Chicago Fire," "Revolution")
Canceled: 7 ("Animal Practice," "Do No Harm," "1600 Penn," "Deception," "Go On," "Guys With Kids," "The New Normal")
No decision yet: 1 ("Hannibal")
Yet to air, but not on 2013-14 schedule: 1 ("Save Me")

Fail factor: 72.7 percent

The CW: 5 new shows

Renewed: 3 ("Arrow," "Beauty and the Beast," "The Carrie Diaries")
Canceled: 2 ("Cult," "Emily Owens, M.D.")

Fail factor: 40 percent

Notes:

- Shows that were allowed their full run but aren't in contention for next season, like ABC's "Last Resort" and FOX's "The Mob Doctor," are in the canceled category.
- "Full order" in this context means that a network aired or is airing all the episodes of a given show in season. In some cases that means a full 22-episode order, but in others (particularly for midseason shows) it means fewer than that.
- Since it will never actually air, NBC's pre-canceled "Next Caller" is not included in the network's totals. CBS has yet to say definitively if "Friend Me" will see the light of day; the other "yet to air" series have premiere dates.

Photo/Video credit: ABC, NBC, CBS