The sample size is pretty small, but early returns on the new TV season suggest it's not an especially good time to be a new show, and an even worse one to be a second-year show -- particularly one whose first season was cut short by the writers strike.

Chuck, Pushing Daisies, Private Practice and other second-year shows that had longer-than-usual layoffs because of the strike have suffered some pretty steep dropoffs in their audience. Again, we're only talking about one or two episodes in most cases, and the shows will gain some when later DVR viewing is taken into account (a little over a quarter of homes have DVRs now). But shows also don't usually make big ratings gains once a season starts, so the outlook isn't exactly rosy.

Consider some of these figures:

• Last season NBC's Chuck averaged about 8.7 million viewers per week, and Life drew 8.1 million. Both shows premiered Monday to fewer than 7 million viewers.
• ABC's Pushing Daisies and Private Practice premiered Wednesday to audiences that were 3.1 million and 2.7 million viewers below their averages last fall. Dirty Sexy Money fared a little better, but its audience of 7.1 million was still down by 1 million compared to last year's average.
• Two more series that had their midseason runs truncated because of the strike -- FOX's Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and NBC's Lipstick Jungle -- have also declined. Even if you remove the 18 million-plus opening for Sarah Connor following an NFL playoff game in January, the show has still lost more than 2 million viewers. Lipstick Jungle, which was a surprise renewal in the spring, is down about 1.3 million viewers.

The common thread among all those shows is that none of them had aired an original episode in at least six months. The networks for the most part opted to rest their first-year shows after the strike, and no show that more than half a year off -- even an established one like Heroes, which has lost about 3 million viewers so far -- has come close to matching its ratings from last season.

In contrast, established shows that were brought back post-strike -- the Grey's Anatomys and NCISes of the world -- have done OK, drawing audiences on par with or slightly below their 2007-08 averages. Two of the few second-year shows that did air new episodes in the spring, CBS' The Big Bang Theory and The CW's Gossip Girl, have been fairly healthy so far this fall.

The bitter irony for the second-year shows is that in at least a couple of cases, the long hiatus has actually helped them creatively. The first three episodes of Chuck that NBC sent to critics are as good, if not better, than any the series aired last fall. Pushing Daisies also has a strong beginning creatively, and Private Practice seems to have worked out some of the adolescent silliness that plagued it last year.

News for the newcomers isn't a whole lot better. Tuesday-night competitors The Mentalist and Fringe are the only shows that can be labeled "hits" so far; the CBS crime drama is by far the most-watched new show at 15 million-plus viewers, while the FOX show leads all newbies in the adults 18-49 demographic (4.1, six-tenths of a point ahead of The Mentalist). The CW's 90210 has been a CW-sized success, averaging about 3.7 million viewers so far and pulling in the young female viewers the network wants.

A few high-profile new series -- Life on Mars, Eleventh Hour and My Own Worst Enemy -- have yet to premiere and could still make a bit of a splash in the coming weeks. But if you're looking for a new (or newish) smash this season, you're going to have a hard time finding one.

Comments

Rick:

How has House MD, with it's new team firmly in place and no Wilson, done in the ratings so far this season compared to the averages of last or even the season prior?

Just curious as there seem to be a lot of people who dislike the new direction of the show.

Doug | Oct 3, 2008 2:47:41 PM | #

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I know I got out of the habit of watching. Between the strike and few new episodes before the summer break, I really stopped caring about many of the shows I was watching. I'm still watching the cable shows because their schedules really didn't change much. Network viewing is still few and far between for me.

Kate | Oct 3, 2008 3:45:19 PM | #

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I don't feel that the problem lies in less people watching television, but in more people using alternative avenues to watch their shows, such as online, Itunes, DVRs. I myself am too busy to sit in front of the television, and I watch most of my shows online when I'm able to. The networks are using an antiquited method of judging how many people watch their shows. And what's worse, it shows the viewers who the networks don't care about. Most of the people who are using these alternative routes of viewing are the younger people who advertisers want. Until the networks factor in the numbers of people who use online and Itunes to watch their programming, rather than the Nielsons, shows will keep getting pulled prematurely, and more viewers will get fed up that their favorites are getting cancelled and give up on television.

Jeff | Oct 3, 2008 4:20:28 PM | #

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The ratings slump is the fault of the networks because they didn't show any reruns of their shows before the new season. They put everything into showing
game shows and reality programs during the strike. I didn't see one repeat of Heroes but a zillion repeats of Law&Order though.

Bill | Oct 3, 2008 5:19:10 PM | #

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I agree entirely with JEFF here. Please don't cancel any of these shows before you figure out how to truly calculate accurate numbers of viewers who watch through alternate means! I'm late-20s and I watch primarily via online methods since I'm too busy to sit in front of a tv to watch.

Celie | Oct 3, 2008 5:54:39 PM | #

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I have not watched a live show in about 3 years, but I watch almost every show that airs on my DVRs or on-line. It is absurd that these so called Network experts have not gotten into the new age of technology. With DVR's, On-line and portable players like Zune and Ipods, who watches live anymore. Even when I do watch on the same night the show airs, it is not live. I love my FF button on the remote.

Ted | Oct 3, 2008 8:18:34 PM | #

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I'm old school...I only watch live.

bob | Oct 3, 2008 11:10:54 PM | #

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I felt that the premiere of PUSHING DAISIES was as good as (if not better than) anything from last year. It was truly magical.

Part of the problem with these shows' second seasons is that they're up against some more-established shows that didn't take quite as long a hiatus last year, like BONES, CRIMINAL MINDS, CSI NY.

I couldn't survive without my DVRs, though. There's way too much on at the same time. There are times when I'm recording four shows at once -- and then hours and hours of prime time where there's nothing to watch. Good think NBC sucks this year... AGAIN.

David | Oct 3, 2008 11:17:38 PM | #

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I was never that into Chuck, actively hated Pushing Daisies, and never saw Private Practice. So I don't care..they can go away and I won't miss them. I'm more into the better shows on cable channels than network drivel.

Kathy | Oct 4, 2008 12:00:02 AM | #

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Chuck's season opener was awesome. Hopefully people come back on board.

And TSCC is terrible. It deserves to lose viewers after last season. I refuse to watch after what should have been it's killer action sequence last year was absolutely stupid. I realize that it's t.v. and it may not have the budget of a major movie but dam it was a let down.

Tony | Oct 4, 2008 12:13:53 AM | #

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Also Hulu is great. I wouldn't have bothered with Fringe after the pilot, but hey it was free and I had an hour, and "The Arrival" was a great episode that finally has my caring about the story.

Tony | Oct 4, 2008 12:16:09 AM | #

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We don't watch live either. We only watch what has been recorded on the DVR. It would be really disappointing if any of the shows mentioned in the article didn't make it based on the first couple of weeks of the new season.

Susie | Oct 4, 2008 9:30:52 AM | #

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Big Band Theory's a good sitcom, and I still enjoy House, and to some degree Boston Legal. But the good stuff is almost exclusively on cable: Battlestar Galactica, Mad Men, Eureka, The Shield, Monk, Psych, Burn Notice, Rescue Me, Weeds... There is so very little on the broadcast nets that even approach the quality of these shows. I think a lot of people discovered this during the strike (through rentals and reruns) and have come to realize that mediocre-to-junky shows like Private Practice and Chuck just aren't cutting it.

Brandon | Oct 4, 2008 11:08:48 AM | #

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I am curious about what you 20-somethings mean by "too busy," since I've never met anybody in their teens or 20s who was doing anything worthwhile with their time.

aev | Oct 4, 2008 11:35:40 AM | #

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The writers strike destroyed these shows. Chuck, Life, Pushing Daisies, Private Practice, and Dirty Sexy Money all did great last fall but since none of them aired an original episode in so long it seems like people forgot about them. I hope their respective networks don't forget about them either.

Dan | Oct 4, 2008 5:12:08 PM | #

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The networks will keep many of these low rated shows on the air, but ABC will force a longer running but higher rated show like Boston Legal off the air in a couple of months. Unbelievable!

Katina | Oct 4, 2008 8:12:27 PM | #

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They should have at least shown reruns during the summer to remind people about these shows.

Nathan | Oct 4, 2008 9:45:54 PM | #

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A lot of the problem with HOUSE this season is it's 8 p.m. EST time slot. FOX moved it from 9 p.m. to give FRINGE a good lead-in. HOUSE is not a show for 8 p.m. It is for MATURE audiences.
The second problem I see is that hardly no one likes 13, including me. We'd like to see a little more of Chase and Cameron as well.
As long as the AMAZING HUGH LAURIE is on the show I will watch. And I love Robert Sean Leonard as well.
I never watched any of the other shows so I can't comment. But with the news of another strike, well, that can't be good.
I'll just stick with HOUSE for now.

Lisa | Oct 4, 2008 11:23:05 PM | #

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"Chuck"'s numbers probably took a hit because people had the chance to watch the premiere a week before it aired on NBC via Hulu and iTunes.

Again, I'm going to have to agree with some previous posters who mentioned that the old school way of determining viewers does not match up with how people are watching shows in this day and age.

I hope things improve for "Chuck" and "Pushing Daisies" because they're two of the few shows that I actually care about this season.

MC | Oct 4, 2008 11:53:15 PM | #

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Shows I watched this year before they were broadcast:
- Fringe pilot
- Chuck premiere
- Life premiere
- Knight Rider premiere
- Lipstick Jungle premiere
- The Mentalist pilot

With online and On Demand availability, why should I wait for the commercial broadcasts when the TV image will be nearly unwatchable?
- network and channel logos
- TV rating overlay
- advertising for upcoming shows
- squashed credits and no sound due to more advertising
DVRs don't fix these problems; they just preserve them. I'm looking for any alternatives that give me unadulterated TV video and audio.

Henry | Oct 5, 2008 8:15:07 AM | #

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I watch online, record multiple shows on DVR and watch live. I echo many of the sentiments in the comments above. The industry still needs to catch up in how it records the viewers based on current technology to get an accurate count. I am still enamored with my favorite shows but have been frusterated by the lapses and scheduling changes created by the strikes. The networks have to realize that a number of viewers will have lost patience when shows disappeared for so long, then were shuffled, then returned only to resume briefly. The networks cannot assume that shows are not working because of lower numbers. The strikes caused many people to return to reading and find new hobbies out of frustration. However, many loyal TV viewers have stuck with the programs they enjoy, and will continue to spread the word.

Sarah Williams | Oct 5, 2008 1:53:59 PM | #

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In Chuck's case the competition is brutal. I love the show but didn't watch because it was against Terminator and How I met Your Mother which I watched and tivoed.

Jason | Oct 5, 2008 3:54:01 PM | #

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Tony, TSCC isn't supposed to be an all-action show. It's labeled as a "drama" show.

Obviously, you're not into RDM's Battlestar Galactica...

sdfsdf | Oct 5, 2008 6:23:58 PM | #

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For several of the sophomore shows, its been a year since seeing them and the networks expect us to return with barely a reminder or a lengthy episode recap or repeats to remind us what the heck happened when last we left, this is especially true for the ABC shows. I can't remember what happened last year on Pushing Daisies, Private Practice and Dirty Sexy Money. In some cases (DSM) that might be good, I believe my interest was waning, but besides that, I hardly have the same attachment to these shows that I do to something like 24 that I've watched for years and years and remember, look for, and watch reruns of. For the sophomore shows that didn't really click 100% for me, my time commitments for that hour are flexible and the networks should have considered that when they decided to remove them from their spring schedules.

Jasmine | Oct 5, 2008 10:18:08 PM | #

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I think it's more of putting too many quality shows on one night. Look at Monday: Terminator, Prison Break, Chuck, Heroes, CSI: Miami. The Christian Slater show starts in another week. And I'm not even mentioning the comedies on CBS, which I enjoy. I don't have time in my busy schedule to watch everything. I tape several but am running behind on those, too. Poor planning on the networks' behalf, I think.

Tim | Oct 6, 2008 6:34:48 AM | #

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